Ask yourself who stirred up and enticed the Ukrainians - to consider their relationship with Moscow. The region must sort itself out.
Some of the news sources quoted above won't tell you of all the power play going on.

Hope this doesn't mean another cold war.

Russia enticed Ukraine to rethink their relationship with Russia. Yanukovich has a lot to be blamed for, he had his political adversary, Yulia Timoshenko arrested for getting a bad deal on Russian gas. Russia ALWAYS sets higher prices for countries which are not its friends, thus for example Romania pays a lot more for Russian gas than Germany, who is (or was) buddy-buddy with Russia. It's like a mafia racket, made even worse with her arrest.

If I hadn't been busy packing for a flight I would have mentioned last week that "combat drills" are often a prelude to something else....I'm often a much happier person when I'm wrong. :/



As godsonsafari mentioned U.S. military action isn't likely going to happen, not even something as basic as a redeployment of a carrier force in the Black Sea or shuffling around ground troops in Poland. For all the failings of the U.S. media, there are benefits to tuning in every once in a while. You'll notice that in the last two days most American media people have been saying something to the effect of "there is no military option." Some have been more explicit, like "senior officials not authorized to speak about national security policy" say there is no military option. When every news channel carries that same story, it means officials were authorized by the White House to speak off-the-record and they want everyone to know there is no military option. That includes Putin too.

Where it doesn't involve covert operations Obama might be the most conflict-averse president since Eisenhower; Odyssey Dawn was an exception. Most Western (not just American) officials are talking about "deescalating the situation," meaning they have no interest in war. This is obviously a very volatile situation and things could change rapidly, but in diplomat-speak Russia's actions will lead to a further "chill" on U.S.-Russia relations to include some (probably minor and symbolic) economic sanctions and trade cutoffs, but no military action. And honestly the economic punishments will constitute little more than a pinprick. The most worthless and symbolic punishment would be kicking Russia out of the G8 and a few of the other seven are indicating that is a no-go. U.S. sanction may be little more than sanctions on specific Russian individuals. I could see a U.S. guarantee of sending so many tons of natural gas to Western Europe but there would be domestic pushback to that (and we don't presently have the infrastructure for that either).

It is entirely conceivable that the most severe consequences will be organic, unplanned and not directed by any state: private capital flight from Moscow, large drops in the Russian stock market and concurrent devaluation of Russian currency.

The article I read said more than it being just a bad deal.
That is why the EU talk big but won't do anything - Russia supplies a lot of our gas. Yanukovich was democratically elected as far as Russia was concerned.

I dont know the details of that treaty but i read it somewhere. I'm not going to claim it actually is like that, but it would definitely be the most hilarious outcome.

Also Khanates are really cool and we live in a world with no Khanates. I totally want to see a Khan of crimea just for the name only.



russia never denied that the troops were theirs. Apparently a lot ukrainian troops in the crimea defected too.

Well, tomcat, you may get your wish! The flagship of Ukraine's Navy, Hetman Sahaidachny, has refused to take orders from the new Kiev regime. It's returning home from a training exercise in the Gulf of Aden - flying the Russian flag!

Ukraine's PM has reportedly asked Erdogan in Turkey to deny it passage into the Black Sea. Turkey's been invited in to the conflict, so that Khanate, well... maybe.

interesting: http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1099314

Putin still denies they are Russian troops.

Also, very few Ukrainian troops defected, it is all part of the Russian propaganda machine. Don't forget Putin was in the KGB.

Russia also claimed a mass exodus of people from the Ukraine to Russia, total lie.

Both sides use propaganda, don't forget that.

They wear Russian-looking uniforms and use Russian gear, but they might very well be Ukrainian militias supported by Russia.

Yeah, probably, it only takes a few days to train soldiers, assign officers and chains of command, learn how to use weapons, learn to drive military vehicles, forget the Ukrainian language, etc.

I'm sure the US and other militaries would be very interested in how to recrute several thousand able people in a few days without even making a public announcement, and then turn them into perfect soldiers shortly afterwards, following orders and all.

... yeah, yeah I get it. Calm your tits.
"Militia" was actually the incorrect word to use there, my mistake. What I meant was that they might be Ukrainian troops commanded by the pro-Russian Crimean government. Fact is that they aren't operating under Russian flag. Russia probably gave them uniforms, weapons, perhaps some Russian Soldiers "on vacation". But they did not technically "invade" Crimea.

Well, Russia does claim they are local Crimean self-defence forces, but there is no way they could have organised so fast. They are not deserters from the Ukrainian Army.

Russian officials claim that they cannot control them or give them orders, and say they have no idea where they got the equipment.

Here's a pic of them in front of a military transport with Russian colours:

This could explain much about the current situation,

"A 2010 deal allows Russia to use Sevastopol as its naval base until 2042, although a new pro-Western Ukraine government might not honor that agreement."

The majority in Crimea identify as being Russian (58.5% of total population)
http://2001.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/result ... ity/Crimea

Russian registration plate:

I've seen quite a few of these in Crimean pictures lately, I looked up the нм in the plates most or all of them seem to have, and it is simply Russian Army without a place code (sometimes the letters indicate a place).

"In Crimea, a long caravan of cars drove through Simferopol throughout Tuesday, many with a slogan written on their rear windshields saying, “Against the Lying Mass Media.” Supporters who cheered the caravan said the message was aimed at the Ukrainian news media in Kiev that was reporting on so-called pro-Russia extremists in Crimea."

”SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — The prime minister of Crimea, the autonomous Ukrainian republic seized by Russian military forces, said Tuesday that most Ukrainian military units on the Crimean Peninsula had surrendered and pledged allegiance to his pro-Russian government"

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/05/world ... .html?_r=0

That is unconfirmed that they surrendered.

What they have done, is the Russian forces took their bases, and they went in unarmed to ask for them back (which of course they didn't get): http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26447682 If you read that article you will see that they are strong suspicions that those troops are not a local militia, and it's from a credible source, the BBC.

I took a couple of pictures of a demonstation in Bucharest against Russian agression, a few hours ago, Metal Archives exclusive:




The Russian embassy was not flying any flags, pretending to be Crimean.


By the way, I figured out how to localise Russian military license plates, it's the number above the "RUS". The picture I posted earlier had "90", which means "Black Sea Russian fleet", normal military vehicle for Crimea. However, the one in the BBC article had "21", which means it was from a North Caucasus unit.



http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26248275

He was never elected khan, we turks dont accept him.

Also on the media: I don't trust anything i am reading. The russian bias in their media is there obviously and everything here is so obviously slanted against russia too.
I'll just wait and see what will happen, nothing else we can do anyway.

It is all bullshit and the ones higher up in nato are prob indeed trying to handle it which is best to their interests(quite possible not our own but this all fits into very long strategies of past completely different governments in our nations)

The irony, to me, is that this whole crisis was kicked off over whether Ukraine would remain within the Russian sphere of influence or come under the sway of the EU, an institution that is, in essence, a tool for the extension and enforcement of German economic hegemony. The more things change, baby; let's party like it's 1939.

hope not starting the second cold war! Romania very near from Ukraine wee are first, well hope not!
_________________
jocuri mario

People are so ignorant of history.

Germany invaded Sudetenland, claiming the Germans there were oppressed. Later they occupied the Czech lands. A puppet government was set up in Slovakia, thus German control over Czechoslovakia was complete.

Also interesting are the parallels between the annexation of Austria, the "Anschluss". Austria wanted a referendum before Germany invaded, so instead Germany claimed there were riots and sent their troops to "restore order", after which they set up a referendum under military occupation.

And the Russians claim the Ukrainian authorities are fascist, without even looking at historical facts.

Sorry, I can't hear you. Your head seems to be too far up your ass.

It looks like Ukraine is caught in a tug of war. The Ukrainians should be left alone and allowed to make their own decision.

You're missing the point. Ukraine (indeed, all of Eastern Europe) is caught between the power of Germany and the power of Russia, which has been the story in the region pretty much since the 18th century. The 1941-45 dustup and the events of 1989-1991 were supposed to have put paid to the ambitions of both powers, but Germany (through its puppet mastery over the EU) and Russia (through petro wealth) have got their skin back in the (same old) game.

He's right. Germany is the main profiteer off the EU. It has the strongest influence on EU economic policy and the resulting laws are most beneficial for the German industry. And that's really all there is to creating a hegemony. This article goes into detail: http://www.euractiv.com/priorities/merk ... ews-531304

WW2 comparisons are, as always, highly pointless.


The Ukrainian coup leaders do have undeniable ties to fascist organizations. The fuck does WW2 history have to do with anything?

All this comparison to 1939 is just a terrible little scare tactic. Call your opponents nazis, and automatically you're right eh... what nonsense. Never mind that Russian troops are allowed to be in Crimea, never mind that Russian-majority Crimea was only transferred to Ukraine by the undemocratic Soviet regime and they naturally want to go back, never mind that the new Kiev government has removed minority language rights so they don't feel included in where the country is going. What matters is Putin = Hitler, because totally out-of-context comparisons.

Meawhile the Crimean parliament wants to hold a referendum for Crimeans to decide whether they want to be Russian or Ukrainian. Of course the west can't accept democracy if the outcome may not be in its interest.

Because Russia is doing nothing illegal to justify sanctions and a referendum can't be condemned if you're a nation relying on democracy-pathos in your foreign politics, Washington is instead arbitrarily freezing the bank accounts of Ukrainians and Russians.

The British public know all about leaders taking "steps in the wrong direction"

C an you please stop turning threads about other subjects into threads about UK politics? That's why we gave you your own playground in the first place.

The response was to a quote in the article posted above. I was pointing out the irony. I think you'll find it bears relevance to the big picture.

I have my own "playground" simply because a few here wouldn't recognise the truth if it bit them.

I didn't think mindshadow was trying to hijack this thread toward another British discussion. It was just a quick little comment, which was witty imo. No need to chase him away.

The comparison to 1939 was simply to note that the stakes and the players are still basically the same.



Never mind, too, that "Russian-majority" Crimea only has a Russian majority because of yet another Stalinist atrocity, but whatever. Facts aren't really what this is all about, and they don't seem to have any real bearing on the situation at hand.

Ukrainian military posts in Crimea stormed by Russian troops:
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdirectpress.ru%2Fv-ukraine%2F36691-v-sevastopole-rossijskie-voennye-shturmuyut-voinskuyu-chast

Provocations from Transnistria planned for Odessa. For those who don't know, Transnistria is a de-facto independent state (officially part of Moldova, but uncontrolled by Moldova-recognised by no other country) where one Russian army has been stationed for many years:
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdirectpress.ru%2Fv-ukraine%2F36692-rossiyane-gotovyat-titushek-dlya-odessy-v-pridnestrove

Speaker of the Crimean parliament is asking for the annexation of all of Ukraine to Russia:
http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... -s-rossiej
warning: a bit is lost in the translation engine. The quote is "воссоединению всей Украины с Россией", in other words unite all of Ukraine to Russia, perhaps re-unite all of Ukraine with Russia.

Thanks, but it wasn't meant to be witty, I was responding to the bbc article posted by inhumanist. There isn't much in the way of democracy here and British workers have been by-passed, so Camerons response to Crimean mps is laughable.The bbc skirt around and still omit discussion about the growing Concerns people have here over our membership.

I'd add that Ukraine has pretty much no real history as an independent nation. It has always been a vassal state of neighboring empires. I don't know why we continue to insist that the natural order of things isn't the natural order of things, but there you have it.

well the ukrainian history is there. That just mostly stopped about 800 years ago though.

Although I certainly don't agree with how Russia is acting, I think Crimea eventually joining Russia is somewhat inevitable given the historical context and the fact that a majority of people there are ethnically Russian and would favour being annexed. Also, I somewhat suspect the reason the West is making such a big fuss about it is that the new Ukrainian leader is pro-Western. Nevertheless, they shouldn't have just brought their army into a foreign country like that - that is a clear violation of Ukranian sovereignty. However, if Crimea votes in the referendum to join Russia then I think they should have every right to do so.

Strutta and tomcat: big picture, I support what you say to a certain degree. My ideal future of Eastern Europe is a reunion of the three historic Rus' states, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. They have a shared heritage and so belong together. Whether the capital of future Vostoslavia is Moscow, Kiev, Novgorod or Minsk, whatever, doesn't matter. As long as this closening is done with popular consent and maintains respect fir regional peculiarities ( Ukrainian dialects, Catholic presence in western areas etc.)

However, they are not ready to reconcile the Soviet crimes yet! So until that happens, borders are necessary, so they might as well be accurate. Crimea? Fine, it's Russian by the currently accepted boundaries of national identity. But as long as Ukraine (and Belarus) want to exist separately, statements like "Ukraine hasn't been real for 800 years" are not helpful.

You know what the leadership of the Crimean Tatars has said? That they will boycott the referendum and are asking all nationalities to do so. They said they have nowhere to go, as Crimea is where they are from, and with Russia ruling over them they expect to be deported to Siberia again. Keep in mind the gulag system has not been dismantled, and Putin was in the KGB.

Stalin died in 1953.