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oneyoudontknow
Cum insantientibus furere necesse est.

Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 6:25 pm
Posts: 5583
Location: Germany
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:28 pm 
 

LATEST UPDATE:

these genres are now dealt with:
Black Metal, Death Metal, Doom, Thrash, NWOBHM, Heavy, Power, Speed, Gothic


Image


-----------------------------------------------

ImageImage

Releases per anno (black metal)

year - amount of releases

1980 1
1981 7
1982 10
1983 15
1984 15
1985 28
1986 29
1987 53
1988 66
1989 85
1990 114
1991 175
1992 339
1993 489
1994 618
1995 882
1996 1047
1997 1258
1998 1403
1999 1704
2000 1717
2001 2158
2002 2562
2003 3308
2004 4059
2005 4352
2006 4277
2007 4294
2008 3256 (up to today)

{search: term: black metal + year}

I did some analysis on the evolution of black metal, taking data from the MA for this purpose, and came across the graphic that is shown above. There are different interesting eras:

1980-1991
1992-1999
1999-2004
2004-2007
2008-?

Has black metal peaked and will be see a decline in the amount of releases?
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Last edited by oneyoudontknow on Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:55 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Zhuinden
Slow on the Uptake

Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:35 pm
Posts: 286
Location: Hungary
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:33 pm 
 

Quality over Quantity.

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EmbraceTheDeath
Metal newbie

Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2008 6:02 pm
Posts: 130
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:34 pm 
 

So is that the amount of releases that the graph is showing?
Honestly, releases have nothing to do with the peak of black metal. I'm sure others could elaborate on this more, but the best black metal came out from the late 80s to mid 90s. While there are some quality bm bands today, surely the best have past us.

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Kruel
Veteran

Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:56 pm
Posts: 3426
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:35 pm 
 

The OP is clearly talking about quantity.

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MushroomStamp
Metalhead

Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 11:07 pm
Posts: 681
Location: Helsinki, Finland
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:35 pm 
 

EmbraceTheDeath wrote:
So is that the amount of releases that the graph is showing?
Honestly, releases have nothing to do with the peak of black metal.


It's a reference to Peak Oil, which is strictly related to quantity only.
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MaDTransilvanian
Caravan Beyond Redemption

Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 12:56 pm
Posts: 3862
Location: Romania
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:36 pm 
 

The 2006 peak must be because of Drudkh. I'm just kidding, but yeah I agree with the quality over quantity aspect of it, although Eastern Europe's scene is in its prime and releasing awesome music. The same can be said about Quebec.

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ForNaught
Metalhead

Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:37 pm
Posts: 1193
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:37 pm 
 

I suspect some up-and-down fluctuation in the years to come, I doubt it will be as simple as a single peak and decline. No "Black metal crash" on the horizon, at least...
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Airflla
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:55 pm
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Location: Ireland
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:37 pm 
 

Not every release for a particular year is added without delay, many are added retrospectively... shift the graph forward a few years and it'll probably be the same shape.
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Nolan_B
Village Idiot

Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 10:05 pm
Posts: 4629
Location: United States
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:42 pm 
 

I'm interested to see what 7 releases were released in 1981.

Edit: Nevermind, just looked.

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Boomsticks
Metal newbie

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 8:02 pm
Posts: 127
Location: New Zealand
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:44 pm 
 

It's most likely just a dip... It'll probably start rising again after this year or next. Or it'll level off somewhere in the 2-3000 range, which wouldn't be too bad.
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Last edited by Boomsticks on Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kruel
Veteran

Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:56 pm
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:45 pm 
 

Why do you think having more releases is good?

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Fanfarigoule
Veteran

Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:59 am
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Location: France
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:57 pm 
 

Zarach 'Baal' Tharagh's efforts at maintaining a constant increase haven't really been fruitful Image

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HumanWaste5150
Metalhead

Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 9:32 am
Posts: 1986
Location: GTA, Canada
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:57 pm 
 

Kruel wrote:
Why do you think having more releases is good?


Better chance of good albums ?
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ReigningChaos
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu May 13, 2004 7:36 pm
Posts: 339
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:58 pm 
 

Airflla wrote:
Not every release for a particular year is added without delay, many are added retrospectively... shift the graph forward a few years and it'll probably be the same shape.


I'd say this is the most likely explanation.
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marktheviktor
Metal freak

Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2006 3:41 am
Posts: 6922
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:00 pm 
 

Breaking out a graph chart to measure black metal. Just when you thought nothing could surprise you, it ends up that you thought wrong.

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JohnGalt
Metal newbie

Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:35 pm
Posts: 133
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:06 pm 
 

Keep in mind that 2008 isn't over, so that final drop should even out a little bit by 2009.

I agree with the others in this thread. Black metal is far from dead, and I'm sure there will just be fluctuation over the next few years before it begins to fade out.

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RegularK
Metalhead

Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 9:24 pm
Posts: 742
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:11 pm 
 

2003 was the last year to have a significant boost in album releases, after that it's been fairly equal in releases. Until now, 1000 less than last year.

Wow, why could that be?

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invoked
Metalhead

Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:54 pm
Posts: 1716
Location: United States
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:12 pm 
 

HumanWaste5150 wrote:
Kruel wrote:
Why do you think having more releases is good?


Better chance of good albums ?

Also better chance that any good albums are obscured in endless mountains of crap that the magazines (and forums) herald as genius? (ahemWitTR) Out of those thousands of albums a year, how many are truly good? As good as the revered albums of its early 90's heyday?

I'm perfectly content with black metal being on the decline, at least in terms of quantity. Once they begin to lose an audience, all of the trendy black metal bands will go find day jobs while the truly dedicated musicians will stick with it through thick and thin. When there's no crowd to appeal to, artists are more likely to create what they feel to be great art, not what they think audiences will like more. In this age, bands are fully capable of being independent from the pressures and general bullshit of the music industry, since albums can be fully self-recorded and distributed. At that point, it's up to the fans to pick which bands they think are better than others.
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Grynfisher
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:43 pm
Posts: 93
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:24 pm 
 

Black Metal had its peak in the early 90's, and has been deteriorating since.

Have there been more releases in recent years? Sure. This year isn't over yet.

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LVB
Metal newbie

Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 11:26 am
Posts: 150
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:35 pm 
 

"Peak" should refer to artistic achievement, not quantity of releases. If you want to talk peak(s) then never fail to mention Hvis Lyset Tar Oss, Pure Holocaust, Transilvanian Hunger, Far Away from the Sun, and In the Nightside Eclipse.

Reaching those peaks will probably never be accomplished again.

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Kruel
Veteran

Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:56 pm
Posts: 3426
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:36 pm 
 

MushroomStamp wrote:
It's a reference to Peak Oil, which is strictly related to quantity only.

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Sionis
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:54 pm
Posts: 150
Location: Australia
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:39 pm 
 

Who cares about the quantity? It's all about the quality.

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Kruel
Veteran

Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:56 pm
Posts: 3426
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:41 pm 
 

:durr:

Everybody knows that quality is more important, but this thread is about quantity, so stop posting irrelevant shit about how quality is more important.

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Grynfisher
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:43 pm
Posts: 93
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:42 pm 
 

The OP does, evidently.

Insufficient data, I say.

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Fanfarigoule
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Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:59 am
Posts: 3295
Location: France
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:42 pm 
 

There is nothing extraordinary about that as has been said.

Here are some figures (total number of releases on MA):
2000 5821
2001 7004
2002 8538
2003 10270
2004 12177
2005 13100
2006 12843
This was taken by the end of 2007.

If we look at it today (one year later):
2000 6105 (+4,9%)
2001 7306 (+4,3%)
2002 8808 (+3,2%)
2003 10597 (+3,2%)
2004 12660 (+4,0%)
2005 13795 (+5,3%)
2006 13956 (+8,6%)

What could have been perceived as a drop-off back then was actually just a light decrease. And more releases are still about to be added.

ImageImage

We can deduce from that graph that it takes around 3 years to quit what I would call the transient regime. So, we can wait 2011 before making any analyze on 2008.


Last edited by Fanfarigoule on Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nyaricus
Metalhead

Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 1294
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:45 pm 
 

Interesting that with the end of Second Wave Black metal in circa 1999, the graph almost doubles for Third Wave and beyond...

Thanks for this! Death Metal is another big sub-genre, who's willing to make up a neat graph for that one?

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Norrmania
Metalhead

Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2006 12:42 am
Posts: 1082
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:03 pm 
 

invoked wrote:
HumanWaste5150 wrote:
Kruel wrote:
Why do you think having more releases is good?


Better chance of good albums ?

I'm perfectly content with black metal being on the decline, at least in terms of quantity. Once they begin to lose an audience, all of the trendy black metal bands will go find day jobs while the truly dedicated musicians will stick with it through thick and thin. When there's no crowd to appeal to, artists are more likely to create what they feel to be great art, not what they think audiences will like more. In this age, bands are fully capable of being independent from the pressures and general bullshit of the music industry, since albums can be fully self-recorded and distributed. At that point, it's up to the fans to pick which bands they think are better than others.


These are pretty much my thoughts right here. Interesting that this thread should pop up, I've been thinking recently about how black metal seems to be declining in popularity while thrash seems to be on the rise these days. Very indicative of how trends come and go, and those that claim to be true to something for a few years can so easily switch their leanings. Makes one wonder why these changes happen, and why the crowd suddenly decides to switch its leanings en masse.

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rexxz
Where's your band?

Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 8:45 pm
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Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:21 pm 
 

There are like 3 or 4 retards in this thread that can't understand that this is clearly a numerical representation. Oh well, what can you do.

I think it is unfair to speculate on this "decline" given that you only have one year of differentiating data. Wait at least 5 more, IMO.
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failsafeman
Digital Dictator

Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:45 am
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Location: In the Arena
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:32 pm 
 

Even if there is a quantity decline, so what? I haven't seen the hard data, but I'd be willing to bet every other major metal genre has seen its peak come and go, and probably come and go again. Metal genres have periods of popularity followed by periods of decline...doubtful that this will be black metal's only "peak", or that it will continue declining until it disappears, or whatever it is you're afraid of. This kind of fluctuation is usually followed by a resurgence of renewed interest and creative energy, so it's just a matter of time.
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Negru_Voda
Metal newbie

Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2008 4:37 pm
Posts: 327
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:44 pm 
 

Can anyone do some charts for folk and viking metal (or the two combined in one), as well as a baseline for the output of the entire metal genre?

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Kruel
Veteran

Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:56 pm
Posts: 3426
PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:48 pm 
 

For the entirety of metal, read Fanfarigoule's post in this thread.

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TheDave
Metal newbie

Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:49 pm
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Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 12:25 am 
 

If I remember correctly 04 was an awesome year for black metal. I think that's the year I discovered Death Spell Omega as well.

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ReigningChaos
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu May 13, 2004 7:36 pm
Posts: 339
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 12:56 am 
 

If you're going to make another graph, make it for doom metal!
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oneyoudontknow
Cum insantientibus furere necesse est.

Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 6:25 pm
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Location: Germany
PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 2:39 am 
 

rexxz wrote:
There are like 3 or 4 retards in this thread that can't understand that this is clearly a numerical representation. Oh well, what can you do.

I think it is unfair to speculate on this "decline" given that you only have one year of differentiating data. Wait at least 5 more, IMO.

Well, the same way it is always dealt in term of oil. The endless speculation if one small drop will represent the final decline of the amount of oil available or if another (higher) peak is yet to come.

The statement by 'invoked' is a pretty good one.
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Expedience
Metal freak

Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:22 am
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:23 am 
 

Interesting thread. I'd definitely like to see some other graphs, but I'm guessing death metal will be rising exponentially as well as total metal output.

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oneyoudontknow
Cum insantientibus furere necesse est.

Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 6:25 pm
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:23 am 
 

I updated the first graph a bit. Several genres have been added.
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oneyoudontknow
Cum insantientibus furere necesse est.

Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 6:25 pm
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Location: Germany
PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:23 am 
 

Expedience wrote:
Interesting thread. I'd definitely like to see some other graphs, but I'm guessing death metal will be rising exponentially as well as total metal output.

I updated it. Death metal has been added.
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Wet Pussy
Waterlogged

Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:13 pm
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:35 am 
 

So, Death Metal sort of replaced Thrash and a couple years after Death Metal came into prominence, Black Metal started rising but it couldn't lessen the number of Death Metal releases. It's interesting that Death Metal kept on increasing when Black Metal came into prominence, despite the fact that when Death metal started to rise, thrash dropped.

I wonder what the list would look like with NWOBHM and Power Metal added.
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Grynfisher
Metal newbie

Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:43 pm
Posts: 93
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:44 am 
 

Doom Metal looks to saunter steadily on, disinterested with the affairs of other genres. Fitting.

But, yes, looks like informational deficiency is the cause of the supposed decline.

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Expedience
Metal freak

Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:22 am
Posts: 4551
PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:54 am 
 

oneyoudontknow wrote:
Expedience wrote:
Interesting thread. I'd definitely like to see some other graphs, but I'm guessing death metal will be rising exponentially as well as total metal output.

I updated it. Death metal has been added.


Can you fix the years please?

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