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Thexhumed
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Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:26 pm
Posts: 477
Location: Chile
PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:57 pm 
 

Image


What do you think of your country's corresponding group? Mine (I'm Chilean) was actually the worst case scenario, and of those 3, I think we can only beat Australia. Better luck next time I guess.
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Terri23
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Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 2:25 pm 
 

France typically dodged the bullet. England and Netherlands are fucked, and the smart money is on Argentina or Germany.

England can beat both Italy and Uruguay, but they probably won't. They need Italy in particular to be incredibly poor, and that won't happen. Uruguay are stronger than they were 4 years back. They don't have Forlan anymore, but Luis Suarez is probably the best striker in the world right now. Cavani too has blossomed into a genuine world class talent. Netherlands will drop points against Spain, and draw Brazil in the round of 16.
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Thexhumed
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Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:26 pm
Posts: 477
Location: Chile
PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 2:52 pm 
 

Terri23 wrote:
France typically dodged the bullet. England and Netherlands are fucked, and the smart money is on Argentina or Germany.



Netherlands? I think that we are fucked, not them.
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AcidWorm
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Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 11:37 pm
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:39 pm 
 

USA is screwed and I'd be surprised if they make it past the group stages. Portugal and Germany? They need a miracle to win one of those.

It's too bad that poor excuse for a human being, Ronaldo helped beat Sweden. Shame to see so many weak teams in there without Sweden. Ibrahimovic thinks this was his last opportunity to be in a world cup and said that a world cup isn't worth watching. Sour grapes but i'd be pissed as well if I lost to Portugal having scored twice against them.
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Marag
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:49 pm 
 

SpainxNetherlands and EnglandxItaly again, huh

Group A looks easy. Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon are decent teams but I don't we will lose to them unless our team plays like a bunch of mouthbreathers like in the last cup.

Argentina sure got lucky. Most interesting groups are D and G. Ghana are not top players and they probably can't handle Germany and Portugal, but they can put up a fight. The Uruguayan team is looking good, even without Forlan.

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Terri23
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Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
Posts: 2083
PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:24 pm 
 

Thexhumed wrote:
Netherlands? I think that we are fucked, not them.


Netherlands will come runners up to Spain, and draw Brazil in the round of 16. I pointed this out in my first post. Therefore, barring any miracle, the Dutch are fucked. Not as fucked as England. Then again, I'm sure Italy and Uruguay aren't exactly looking forward to playing England either.
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Pippin_Took
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Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:28 pm
Posts: 593
Location: United Kingdom
PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:13 pm 
 

My first reaction was that we (England) were shit out of luck this year, but I wonder in fact whether playing the big teams might force us to raise our game somewhat. The last WC was horrendous because we were so abject against shocking opposition. Italy won't like the heat either, and Uruguay's defence is weak. I'd back Suarez to bag goals against us but all the defenders know how to play him, being in the same league. That said, he's a tremendous player, was superb scoring 4 goals in midweek. If we make it out of the first round, the first knockout round wouldn't be too hard, vs Japan maybe?

Seriously excited though, some tasty first round matches. I think Germany might bottle it, that's a tricky group potentially

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shouvince
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Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 9:11 am
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 07, 2013 1:52 am 
 

I was gonna post something in the Sport thread but then saw a thread dedicated to this. Hmmm.

The groups look good but it sure sucks to be Netherlands. Like Terri23 pointed out, they can avoid Brazil only if they beat Spain the group stages. I think there are two groups of death this time - B & G. Anyway, I've created a mock 'road to the final' map. I hope Germany wins. I'm a tad biased there :) But Brazil will undeniably be a strong force especially on home turf, so they could very well take the cup.

Spoiler: show
Image


My wild prediction: Belgium are the underdogs and might cause some upsets. They've got a fantastic squad - Hazard, Lukaku, Fellaini to name a few. The rest have got good club experience as well.

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markoff_chaney
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Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:42 am
Posts: 233
Location: Australia
PostPosted: Sat Dec 07, 2013 2:51 am 
 

Australia is in the same group as Spain, Netherlands and Chile. We are clearly the black sheep in this group. At best we can hope for a draw against Chile, but given that the World Cup is in South America, I don't think that's likely.
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Thexhumed
Metalhead

Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:26 pm
Posts: 477
Location: Chile
PostPosted: Sat Dec 07, 2013 9:58 am 
 

According to ESPN's SPI (don't know what that is) these are the teams' chances of moving to the next stage.


Spoiler: show
Image
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Marag
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 07, 2013 5:13 pm 
 

Chile trampling over the Netherlands, and Portugal with the same chance as the USA? I'm not so sure.

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The Infamous Bastard
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Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:47 am
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Location: Lair of the Yaks and Yetis
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 11:49 am 
 

Okay, I'm betting on Spain this time as well.

(My country is not in there, and never will be).

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Thexhumed
Metalhead

Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:26 pm
Posts: 477
Location: Chile
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 7:09 pm 
 

^ Which is it?
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The Infamous Bastard
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Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:47 am
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:12 pm 
 

Hint: There's a metal band with the same name. :D

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tomcat_ha
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Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:05 am
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Location: Netherlands
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:51 am 
 

REVENGE

seriously:
Spain is past their prime, how they played recently is a good indication of that. The netherlands has a young talented team that will only get better while spain has an aging team.
I wouldn't be surprised if chile wins the group and netherlands becomes 2nd. We could beat brazil outside of brazil, but them playing home makes me think they are going to win it.

the other groups:
A: Brazil will win the group or flop catastrophically thats all that can happen tbh. Croatia will become 2nd, they have been performing much better lately than mexico have. Cameroon will not get through but i can see them being a crucial factor regardless.

C: Colombia will win the group, the battle for 2nd place will be a quite open one. Japan has played a couple of really decent games recently same for greece. Cote d'Ivore have a lot of great players.

D: Another very open group but i predict that uruguay and italy will go through. England has been nothing but a subtop team since the late 90's. Just look at the english league, most of the great players are not english and they dont have a great goalkeeper. Costa rica will also prob not get trampled and hold their own.

E: Another very unpredictable group, based on reputation france should win it but they havent been doing that well the last few tournaments. Switzerland usually does better than expected so.... i am not counting on honduras to get through tho.

F: i am betting on argentina and bosnia. Argentina might disappoint however like the last couple times. Bosnia has got a talented youngish squad. Nigeria just has been somewhere in the background the last years football wise so i dont expect that much. Iran is prob not a real factor, they did well during the qualification but that wont mean they will do well there.

G: A group of death in D minor. Germany is the only team im sure of getting through. Portugal got an alright squad better than the US but the US has been performing better than they should in tournaments, Ghana im not up to date on but they could very well get through here.

H: Prob the most predictable group, belgium will prob get their act back together from their last few games and win the group. Russia should become 2nd and south korea third.

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Terri23
Metalhead

Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
Posts: 2083
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 2:55 am 
 

Pippin_Took wrote:
I'd back Suarez to bag goals against us but all the defenders know how to play him, being in the same league. That said, he's a tremendous player, was superb scoring 4 goals in midweek.


I'd argue that our players have no idea how to play against him. He's currently on 14 league goals for the season, despite missing the first 6 games.

tomcat_ha wrote:
Some crap about Netherlands being awesome


The Netherlands are most certainly not a young team. The spine of that team is all around about 30, or over. Stekelenburg, de Jong, Sneider, van der Vaart, Robben, van Persie and Huntelaar will all be atleast 30 by the world cup. Sure, Spain have a few older players, Xavi, Puyol, Iniesta, Torres (haha), but they have a younger team emerging too. Fabregas, Mata, David Silva, Pique, Diego Costa etc. The younger players combined with the ageing stars of Spain shouldn't be underestimated, and you'll probably find that most people outside of the Netherlands will agree that Spain are the stronger team.
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Ohrwurm
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Joined: Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:47 am
Posts: 412
Location: Amsterdam, The Netherlands
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 2:59 am 
 

Thexhumed wrote:
According to ESPN's SPI (don't know what that is) these are the teams' chances of moving to the next stage.


Spoiler: show
Image


Hahaha. Wow. Must be some premium sports analysts that made this list.
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shouvince
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 3:23 am 
 

SPI aims to bring some method in the madness but it can never factor in surprises and x-factors. That's what the game is usually about ie. what happens on that given day. Also, these calculations are based on past team performances and individual successes. Where's the team morale, team work, coach's influence etc in the equation? My gut feeling says that I can only give them a 60-70% accuracy on their prediction. I'm no oracle but I do feel that stats can sometimes take a staunch outlook on things, often confusing readers.

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Terri23
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Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
Posts: 2083
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 6:18 am 
 

Those calculations are clearly based on FIFA rankings. I've always had issues with FIFAs ranking system, and I'm definitely not alone. I'll explain it in detail here later, but the obvious case in point based on these numbers is Italy and the Group D projections.

Edit - I've changed my stance on this somewhat upon closer inspection of Group E.
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shouvince
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Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 9:11 am
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:02 am 
 

Regarding SPI, here you go - http://espn.go.com/soccer/worldcup/news ... GuideToSPI
I wish there was a tl;dr version somewhere but I guess I got the very basic sense of how it's calculated.

Spoiler: show
The SPI proceeds in four major steps:
1. Calculate competitiveness coefficients for all games in database
2. Derive match-based ratings for all international and club teams
3. Derive player-based ratings for all games in which detailed data is available
4. Combine team and player data into a composite rating based on current rosters; use to predict future results.

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Terri23
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Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
Posts: 2083
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:54 am 
 

I still have an issue with it. While I was wrong about the FIFA ranking, it is effectively calculated with the same principles in mind. It is right in the sense that international football does carry little reliable data. The reason Italy wasn't seeded in the world cup draw is a good case in point. Italy fucking powered their way through world cup qualifying, reaching the finals with something like 4 games to spare. As far as Italy were concerned, the remaining games after qualification was guaranteed amounted to a little more than meaningless friendly matches. As a result, they experimented, played kids, and dropped points against teams like Armenia. This affected their FIFA ranking, calculating these draws as official qualification matches, rather than friendly matches, which carry a heavier coefficient. Comparitively, Switzerland dominated a group which contained the likes of super heavy weights Iceland, Slovenia and Cyprus. Getting a good run in these competive matches pushed their ranking up. It's worth pointing out that even England would probably have made the top 5 in FIFA rankings in this group. As a result, due to Switzerlands run of form, and Italy taking their foot off the pedal when they had nothing to play for, and FIFA's glorious ranking system, the Swiss scored the coveted seeded spot, avoiding the heavy weights. Italy, despite wiping the floor with just about everybody, got nothing for their result.

Because of this competitive coeffcient weighing far more heavily than friendly competition, nations who host tournaments - such as Brazil in this upcoming world cup - are excluded from competitve qualification competition of tournaments. The luxury of being the host nation grants automatic entry to the finals. This results in host teams dropping ranking points as a result of playing friendly matches with smaller coefficients, while everyone else is playing higher rated competitive qualification matches. Brazil at one point recently were ranked 22nd in the world as a result of this phenomena. Even now, they are only 10th. While even I will agree they are probably weaker than Spain and Germany, they wouldn't be much weaker, probably on a par with Argentina.

TL:DR version - FIFA rankings are a crock of shit, and no one in the world believes Italy are weaker than Switzerland. Or Colombia. Or Uruguay. And no one believes that Brazil are weaker than just about everybody.
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somefella
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Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 11:57 pm
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Location: Singapore
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:50 am 
 

Good luck USA and Ghana, hehehe. Belgium are looking really strong this year from what I've seen of the qualifiers though, I hope they'll go far.
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Thexhumed
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Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:26 pm
Posts: 477
Location: Chile
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 11:59 am 
 

The Infamous Bastard wrote:
Hint: There's a metal band with the same name. :D



Nepal? (as in Nepal Death)
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The Infamous Bastard
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Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:47 am
Posts: 243
Location: Lair of the Yaks and Yetis
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:08 pm 
 

Thexhumed wrote:
The Infamous Bastard wrote:
Hint: There's a metal band with the same name. :D

Nepal? (as in Nepal Death)

Right! How did you know? There's an Argentinian thrash metal band of that name.

By the way, the groups this time seem kinda weird, generally. It seems there are many rather uncommon names in there and many good ones left out. But still, it's the World Cup and there was a process.

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Thexhumed
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Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:26 pm
Posts: 477
Location: Chile
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:21 pm 
 

Process is weird, Uruguay as a top-tier in group D after getting their pass by defeating Jordan in a LB match? The whole FIFA ranking system seems a bid odd to me.

(btw, your country was?)
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The Infamous Bastard
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:23 pm 
 

^ This

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ScandalfTheShite
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:46 am
Posts: 392
Location: Finland
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:58 pm 
 

There's no hope for us poor Finns. Ever even getting to that tournament seems like an utopia. Maybe we should move Finland to Asia. That way we would have a small chance.

I'm all for Germany and their oiled machinery.
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tomcat_ha
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Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:05 am
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Location: Netherlands
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 2:54 pm 
 

Terri23 wrote:
Pippin_Took wrote:
The Netherlands are most certainly not a young team. The spine of that team is all around about 30, or over. Stekelenburg, de Jong, Sneider, van der Vaart, Robben, van Persie and Huntelaar will all be atleast 30 by the world cup. Sure, Spain have a few older players, Xavi, Puyol, Iniesta, Torres (haha), but they have a younger team emerging too. Fabregas, Mata, David Silva, Pique, Diego Costa etc. The younger players combined with the ageing stars of Spain shouldn't be underestimated, and you'll probably find that most people outside of the Netherlands will agree that Spain are the stronger team.


Stekelenburg has not been the 1st choice for goalkeeper for a while. de Jong only recently made a comeback and did not play a major part in the qualification. Sneijder has been out more than he was in. Van der vaart has played some matches but not all. Huntelaar has been consistently injured for a quite a long time now.

The mainstays of the current squad are Lens, Strootman, Robben and Van Persie. We all know how good and important Robben and van Persie have been. Lens has been averaging close to 1 on 2 since he joined the squad. Strootman is one of the major reasons why AS Roma have been doing so well this season.

Defense wise pretty much everyone who has a chance to play at the world cup is under 26. Just look at starting lineup of the matches the dutch squad played last european championship.

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Terri23
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Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 4:50 pm 
 

Even so, with a fully fit squad to choose from, you'd be mad to not select the players I listed. And you won't beat Spain.
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I_Am_Vengeance
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Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:11 pm
Posts: 1635
Location: Australia
PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:42 pm 
 

Well, we're fucked.
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tomcat_ha
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Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:05 am
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Location: Netherlands
PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:16 pm 
 

Terri23 wrote:
Even so, with a fully fit squad to choose from, you'd be mad to not select the players I listed. And you won't beat Spain.


maybe but still the netherlands was the only top 10 fifa ranking team to not lose a single match. All i am saying is that i believe Spain will either pull a last hurrah or they will disappoint quite heavily.

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Jackoroth
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2012 11:55 pm
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Location: Roxburgh Park
PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:48 pm 
 

We are fucked against Spain and probably Netherlands but we'll give Chile a thrashing.
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Terri23
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:15 pm 
 

tomcat_ha wrote:
maybe but still the netherlands was the only top 10 fifa ranking team to not lose a single match.


Wrong. Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland did not lose during qualification. Additionally, Belgium and England were undefeated, but are currently outside the top 10.
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The Infamous Bastard
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Location: Lair of the Yaks and Yetis
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:19 am 
 

I don't know how they're playing right now, but how the hell are Colombia no. 4 in the FIFA world ranking?

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VenusianSea
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:42 am 
 

We never stood a chance to win even a single game anyway, so Group H is as good as any other. I'm totally prepared for a good ass-raping on all three games, and secretly glad that we won't play against Germany because I'd hate to root against my own country.

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tomcat_ha
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Location: Netherlands
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:01 pm 
 

Terri23 wrote:
tomcat_ha wrote:
maybe but still the netherlands was the only top 10 fifa ranking team to not lose a single match.


Wrong. Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland did not lose during qualification. Additionally, Belgium and England were undefeated, but are currently outside the top 10.


england lost from chile at least and belgium lost a friendly from colombia.
http://infostradalive.com/post/67501762 ... am-in-2013

The Infamous Bastard wrote:
I don't know how they're playing right now, but how the hell are Colombia no. 4 in the FIFA world ranking?

they qualified as 2nd in the south american group and defeated belgium in belgium 0-2.

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shouvince
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:13 pm 
 

It suddenly dawned on me that Belgium have one of the most promising keepers in football - Thibaut Courtois. He's got some really good stats even when compared with more experienced players. And bloody hell, he's only 21!
http://en.toty.uefa.com/player=250011668.html

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Terri23
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Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 3:53 am
Posts: 2083
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:57 pm 
 

shouvince wrote:
It suddenly dawned on me that Belgium have one of the most promising keepers in football - Thibaut Courtois. He's got some really good stats even when compared with more experienced players. And bloody hell, he's only 21!
http://en.toty.uefa.com/player=250011668.html


Dunno much about him other than he's done very well at Atletico Madrid. He seems destined for greatness, though it won't be at Chelsea while Mourinho remains in charge. For what it is worth, the guy's behind the long running FIFA series clearly rate him highly too.
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Poisonfume
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Location: Greece
PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 12:01 am 
 

I don't know enough about soccer/football to know whether Hellas is fucked or not, but my flatmates tell me we are. Oh well, we've got a shite team anyway (I think).
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Terri23
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 12:20 am 
 

You had a shit team when you won Euro 2004. Miracles can happen.
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