Does anyone here actually believe that China would be willing to put their entire economy at risk over a couple billion dollars in arms sales to Iran? Who wants to raise their hand?

Diplomatic retaliation coupled with a possible mini trade war, e.g. rigging prices against us for things we need/want. Hypothetically, they could also change their cyber strategy against us from the passive intel-gathering tactics they've been using to a more active form of cyber sabotage. I don't think they would go as far as to use Iran as a proxy to hurt us the way we did in the Soviet-Afghan conflict in the 80's (which is what I'm assuming you meant by direct or indirect help), though I suppose it's possible.

So no, not an "actual war." However, any ratcheting up of diplomatic tensions between great powers or superpowers is dangerous in the long run, which is why our leaders would like to avoid such tensions even if they don't lead to loss of life.





Why does the rest of the world care about the middle east? Is it because of humanitarian concerns, human rights issues? Is it because the rest of the world invests relatively small amounts of money in arms sales to the region? No, it's because of oil, of course. It varies from year to year, but most of the stats I've seen indicate China gets 12% of its yearly oil consumption from Iran. For comparison, our number for Saudi Arabia is around 8% a year, and I think we know how the U.S. would react if someone attacked the Arabian Peninsula. Iran is not the main source of oil for China (that would be Saudi Arabia), but it would be a pretty hefty squeeze nonetheless.

The catch is that they are very dependent on us and also not capable of doing us much military harm, so war is out of the question.

EDIT: some news I apparently missed last week; China and Saudi Arabia are the middle of oil negotiations. Apparently, the Saudis are amping up oil extraction and agreeing to send it to China. Very clever way of making their main regional enemy less relevant in oil matters.


http://www.france24.com/en/20120115-chi ... -wen-visit

There are tensions between China and the USA regarding various other interests, aside from Iran. I believe both countries pretty much understand where the lines are drawn. While China is very much in favor of regional stability and stable oil flow, there's nothing for them to gain once a conflict actually erupts with Iran. If there's an oil shortage, there would be nothing they could do aside from waiting, while asking other nations to increase their oil output. I firmly believe nothing serious is going to change in American-Chinese relations if a conflict over Iran erupts, since stability is pretty much the only serious Chinese (and to a lesser extent, Russian) interest over this whole debacle. Once that is undermined, there's really nothing anyone can do to fix it. Repeating myself a bit here, but yeah, it's beneficial to Russia and China to flex their muscles over this, but as far as my understanding of regional interests goes, I'm expecting an even milder response than you are. Good to know you didn't mean anything as nonsensical as a military conflict between superpowers, though.

So is Rome going to attack Parthia or what?

Pontus, Scythia and the Seleucid Empire are still in the way. On the other hand, you got Egypt by the balls, so it's just a matter of time.

And regardless of who is in charge in Iran, they're going to sell oil. A lot of it will go to China because of the ease of moving it there, assuming China has an appetite for it. China's purchase of US currency and reliance on manufacturing products for Western consumption (the reason why they want to help float the US dollar to begin with) could be cut if they had markets to sell their goods in or had become self reliant. But they aren't. And they likely won't be next year or 5 years from now or 10 years from now, regardless of how much growth occurs in the likes of Brazil or Sub-Saharan Africa. China's appetite for that oil is directly tied then to their ability to sell things in the west.

If they wanted to enter a trade war with the US, they'd be cutting their noses off to spite their face. It isn't going to happen, just as Syria won't lead to Russia trade embargoes against Western nations. They're more pragmatic than to blow up foreign trade.

I don't think the US has any interest in forcing Iran to stop its nuclear weaponizing, if indeed that's what they're doing, and the only reason it pretends to is to appease Israel. Iran is the only country in the region Israel couldn't dominate easily, so they've been trying to get the US to do it for years. But, I doubt the US has any real interest in it. Ahmadinejad is not some irascible, seething maniac. Iran knows if they attack Israel they'll be leveled in 5 seconds. If Israel insists on whipping itself into a frenzy over nothing, let 'em. They're dedicated irrationalists, so let them be happy. Anyone who's paid the slightest bit of attention to...well, anything over the past twenty years cannot help laughing at the notion that the US would unilaterally go blow the shit out of Iraq, and then be all surprised and miffed when Iran blusters about making a bomb. If every house on my street except mine has been burgled, I'm probably going to buy a gun and get a guard dog.